2 min lesson
Run conversion experiments properly
Answer "Why is 'signed up' the wrong definition of activation for Cursor and what would you use instead?" Use one lesson detail to support it.
Step 1 of 3
Run conversion experiments properlyhypothesis, metric, iterate
- 1State a hypothesis. "Surfacing Agent on the first opened file will raise first-week activation" is specific and falsifiable.
- 2Pick one metric. The activation or conversion rate you're trying to move, decided before you ship the change.
- 3Change one thing. Isolate the variable so you know which change moved the result.
- 4Read and iterate. Keep what moved the metric, kill what didn't and write down the learning for the next experiment.
Acquisition flatters you; retention tells the truth. A developer who's still in Cursor on day thirty validated the whole funnel: the launch, the onboarding and the product. So weight retention messaging accordingly. Reinforce the habit, surface advanced capability once the basics stick and treat a churned developer as a question about which moment they never reached.
"For Cursor I'd define activation as the first successful Agent task on a real change, because that's the moment the product proves itself. My hypothesis: surfacing Agent on the first file a new user opens raises first-week activation. I'd pick that rate as the one metric before shipping, then change only the onboarding nudge and leave the rest of the flow alone. If the rate moves, I keep the change and write down why. If it doesn't, I kill it and test the next idea."
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