2 min lesson
Hunt the riskiest unknown
Use "Hunt the riskiest unknown" to tell the cases apart, then choose a response for each one.
Step 1 of 3
Hunt the riskiest unknownresearch the thing that would change the decision
Every ask carries hidden assumptions. List them out loud, then rank them by two factors: how uncertain you are and how badly the project breaks if the assumption is wrong. The cell that is both high-uncertainty and high-consequence is your study. Everything else can wait or be assumed.
Interactive diagram. Tab through its regions; each focused region shows its detail in the panel below.
diagram: quadrant
Spend the budget on the top-right cell; assume, defer or trust existing data for the rest.